I’ve said recently that the big four networks’ situations will change drastically in the next five years, which has caused a bit of a stir in and around my community. They will not be the big hits that they have been, because people will seek more relevant, intimate and meaningful experiences in niche networks. We are already seeing this happen.

I don’t understand why that is so hard for people to grasp, especially as the big four really aren’t social networks any more: they just constantly root through your handbag for information to sell. I feel I can say that with confidence because we’ve been here before many times. As Shirley Bassey sings in “History Repeating”:

“The word is about, there’s something evolving, whatever may come, the world keeps revolving. They say the next big thing is here,that the revolution’s near, but to me it seems quite clear, that it’s all just a little bit of history repeating.”

Let me explain why that is:

It’s no secret that I’ve kicked back against the major social networks marketing so aggressively recently – that’s my choice. I left Facebook not only because of that, but because I was bored of the relentless repetitive posts and the lack of publishing awareness of the people I was connected to. I know that’s harsh, but even I don’t want to know everything my friends are up to, especially when the posts tend to be utopian when in reality life is not!

However, there is nothing like a little break of a couple of days by the sea in the heat to get you to think differently and to accept that the honeymoon period is over and that the whole social media sector is not just fragmenting, it’s rationalising itself. Therefore, I am going to make some changes to how I approach my social media activity. Some people will find that strange, annoying, baffling and stupid, but others will be thankful, according to the feedback I’ve been getting. Making the change was helped by several clients and people I’m connected to, who suggested it in 2011. They lauded me when I shared my thinking and said, “Thank God,” and, “At last.”

So how will I use each channel in future? 

To make money you have to sell something, yet we seem to have become obsessed with the word ‘free’ on the internet – free content, free platforms, free products, free blogs, free uploads, free sharing and, well, just lots of free stuff. No wonder it’s a little noisy and we’re all wearing headphones. The SOPA debate about copyright, intellectual property (IP) and freedom of speech will run as long as the IP lawyers can make money out of it, and anyhow it’s not the focus of this article. Free has different meanings!

Let’s get a few things straight: free isn’t sustainable and doesn’t work in the long run. In fact, in some cases it’s just bullshit! People who complain that they aren’t making money out of their blog or social media activity are usually giving away too much for free. It’s time to put our capitalist hat back on and start monetising the communities we have grown. The market place is maturing and, thankfully, growing up.

Its an ordinary day, but you’re doing something special; you’re meeting friends for a coffee in a store down town. You’re chatting, you’re gossiping, you’re catching up,  discussing the merits of disposable nappies or, the latest offering from a mobile network company. Suddenly, right there next to your table somebody starts walking up and down with a placard showing the brand name of those companies on it you have been talking about. You laugh at it, you try to ignore and after a few moments become irritated by it.

Then, even ruder, you’re having a conversation about your next holidays in New Zealand and up pops a message board right there in the middle of the table. It might be quirky to begin with, even fun, but eventually that interruption becomes nothing short of bombardment. That’s what and will happen on a fundamental basis in the future. And it won’t stop there. That person that was walking up and down with the placards with the nappy brand on it, was discreetly looking through your handbag taking data that will help that same person market to you when you’re sat on the loo and on the intercom in your new car when ‘social’ introduces itself to the driving experience. Welcome to in real life what Facebook and Twitter are doing to you online. Of course you know that.

Most of us would admit that when Facebook launched way back in 2004, it was a game changer. It stole the show and created demand for social networking, which individuals across the world didn’t know they needed. In the last year, though, Facebook has changed, as it becomes busy fulfilling the demand not of its users but of the brands that drive its revenue and shareholder value, other brands will see that the gate has opened and the horse has bolted! Opportunities are everywhere, and everything can be remade. Unthink is just one of the first out of the traps.

Facebook’s changes in the last few weeks are just tweaks. Seriously, they’re not revolutionary. When Henry Ford brought the first mass-produced motor car to the market in 1908 it changed the world, but since then the industry has just been fiddling with the original design. When James Dyson launched a snazzy new vacuum cleaner it was a game changer, but since then all they have been doing is fine tuning.

Every sector is now embedded in an ecosystem. A dynamic, interconnected, knowledgeable community in which all the members are dependent on each other to survive and grow. Whether or not you choose to engage with this ecosystem of activity and pulse is up to you. We live in a world where there is over capacity. Too many restaurants, too many design agencies, too many banks, too many charities, too many consultants, too many engineers, too many graduates. Surely you don’t want me to go on? Businesses too are like newspapers. Today’s news, tomorrrows trash!

Digital Darwinism, as some call it has taken hold. The premise that evolution in business is happening far quicker than at any other time in history and only the fittest brands will survive. Its a stark fact that means we can’t control something that is moving quicker than us.

To put this in perspective look at these figures:

Radio took 38 years to reach 50 million listeners

TV took 13 years to reach 50 million users

Internet took 4 years to reach 50 million users

Online replicates offline behaviour in a profusion of activity. In some cases it’s a remix, real time conversation, sharing information, gossip, pictures and videos. Hell we have been borrowing each other’s books for decades. And, whilst its no different, it can be so different!

In their short online life, social networks are going through a metamorphose already. They are becoming ad networks driven not by the user experience but by shareholder value. Its flipped on its head in the last two years. We do forget they are businesses, exposed to the same pressures as older, more traditional corporate brands. There is not much light between how a company like Coca Cola or Shell operates and Twitter. Certainly Facebook next year when it goes for its IPO. To be brazen, Flickr is in a far better position to produce what we, as users, will want from future social networking. Facebook’s ‘changes’ last week resembled a facelift that Cher would have been more than happy with.

It’s hard to actually identify a social network now that has motivations of purely a social business model not just revenue and profit. There is nothing wrong with that, but whilst aggregation and syndication go on, these online networks are frankly changing functionality and still looking too linear, too narrow and too silo like.  Yet brands are racing to them as if they hold the key to future sustainability. Well they might hold the key but not if its for the wrong lock. Its gullibility at its frightening extreme.